Bitcoin is currently at a crucial juncture, raising questions about its true status in the financial system. The latest data reveals a complex picture, characterized by increased sales activity and shifting ownership patterns.

This analysis delves into why, despite some bullish signals, Bitcoin has yet to fully enter a true bull market phase.

The Real "Bitcoin Bull Market" Hasn't Started

According to blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin has seen a sixth consecutive week of inflows on centralized exchanges (CEXs).

Net deposits of nearly $2 billion have been recorded since December. This trend is often interpreted as a sign of increased BTC selling activity.

Digging deeper, it seems that the ownership of Bitcoin is changing. In fact, the average holding time for Bitcoin coins transacted has recently reached a record high.

This trend suggests that older holders are starting to move their assets, decreasing their Bitcoin holdings.

Interestingly, addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC have increased their holdings, while those holding less than 1,000 BTC have decreased theirs in January.

On the other hand, the balance held by short-term holders has been on the rise since October 2023, a trend typically associated with bull markets.

Even so, the current market scenario does not reflect the typical characteristics of previous highs. According to IntoTheBlock:

"A lack of volume compared to previous bull markets, a limited decline in the balance of long-term holders, and a very modest MVRV ratio of 1.88, imply that Bitcoin is most likely suffering a temporary pullback and has not yet entered the territory of a true bull market."