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Analysis of the probability of $ETH breaking through 4000 in the short term
According to ETF data, on August 4th, there was a net outflow of approximately -465 million USD in a single day (mainly from ETHA), but on August 5th, it quickly turned into a net inflow of +73.3 million, and on August 6th, it continued with +35.1 million. The funding situation has clearly improved.
In the first two weeks of August, the net increase in ETH spot ETF holdings accounted for approximately 0.3–0.4% of the circulating supply.
Not only $BTC, but the exchange inventory of $ETH is also approaching historical lows. The conventional interpretation is that selling pressure is decreasing, but the current resistance is more of a psychological barrier rather than actual sellable volume.
The benefits of the EIP-4844 upgrade have not yet been fully priced in. If $ETH remains around 3800 this weekend, next week's CPI data will become a key driver.
In other words—if the funding situation and on-chain narrative are not enough to push $ETH above 4000, then we can only wait for macro or regulatory catalysts.