Ethereum (ETH) August 8 Afternoon Trend Analysis and Market Outlook

Short-term trend review and key signals intraday rise and fall: Today's ETH price quickly fell back after reaching a high of $3969 around 11:00.
A significant long upper shadow has formed, indicating heavy selling pressure in the $3920-$3940 range.
As of 16:00, the price is fluctuating around the integer level of 3900 USD, with the 1-hour MACD indicator showing a death cross (DIF crossing below DEA), and the histogram turning negative, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum.
Insufficient volume coordination: The hourly trading volume reached 52,680 (recent peak) during the surge.
However, it quickly shrank afterwards, indicating a lack of willingness for high-level chasing funds. The daily trading volume also significantly decreased from 631,679 on August 7 to 190,708, showing weakened high-level support.
Key support and resistance levels in the market core support range
$3850: The previous swing low and near the 1-hour EMA30 ($3835) is the first strong support for a short-term pullback.
$3800: The integer level overlaps with the daily EMA7 ($3756). If it is lost, it may further test the stop-loss level of $3775.
Main pressure range
$3940: The pressure zone formed today between $3920 and $3940 needs a volume breakthrough to open up upside space.
3970 USD: The intraday high is around 3969 USD. If it fails to reach a new high again, it may form a double top pattern.
Market trend prediction and operational suggestions: Probability of a pullback consolidation (60%)
Trigger condition: Daily RSI (65.98) approaching overbought threshold, MACD histogram decreasing, if the price breaks below the support at 3850 USD.
Target level: Retrace to the $3800-$3850 range to seek support, and after completing the indicator correction, it is expected to challenge the previous high again.
Trading strategy: A pullback to around $3850 can allow for a light position in long orders, with an additional position at $3800, and a unified stop loss below $3775.
Breakthrough Probability (30%)
Trigger conditions: Form a consolidation in the range of 3850-3940 USD, 1-hour MACD re-crosses golden cross and the volume increases.
Target point: After effectively breaking through the resistance zone of $3940, the next target is set at the round figure of $4000.
Trading Strategy: Increase position when breaking above $3940 and confirming the pullback, target $4000, with a stop loss set below $3900.
Depth pullback risk (10%)
Trigger condition: A top divergence signal appears on the daily chart, and the price breaks below the key support level of 3775 USD.
Target price: Possible drop to the range of $3650-3700 (the starting point of the big bullish candle on August 7)
Operation strategy: Cut losses decisively on long positions when breaking below $3775, mainly observe or lightly attempt short positions around $3940.
Medium to long-term trend outlook positive factors: Ethereum staking yield exceeds 5%, the U.S. SEC accelerates the approval process for Ethereum ETFs, Layer 2 transaction costs decrease by 37% enhancing ecosystem vitality, institutional funds continue to enter.
Expert opinions from the outside: Tom Lee predicts that ETH may reach $4000 in the near future, and a JPMorgan report states that ETH is transitioning from digital silver to digital oil, with the network's daily settlement value reaching $12 billion.
Technical support: The daily EMA7 and EMA30 have widened their gap, with the medium to long-term bullish arrangement intact. The pullback is seen as a healthy adjustment in the upward process.
Market volatility is severe, and strict adherence to stop-loss strategies is required.
Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in September and the latest developments regarding the SEC's Ethereum ETF.
Decentralized exchanges are safer, but one must still be vigilant about liquidity risks during extreme market conditions.