JPMorgan recently released a dramatic forecast report outlining the Fed's possible interest rate cut path. This prediction is like a repeatedly postponed party, with the action originally scheduled for December now pushed to September next year, and not just a one-time action, but a series of three rate cuts. Each cut by 25 basis points has a subtle impact on the economy.

As a mortgage holder troubled by high interest rates, I deeply understand the influence of Fed Chairman Powell's remarks. Last year, when Powell insisted on a "higher for longer" interest rate policy, the financial markets reacted strongly, and investor confidence was shaken. However, the sudden shift to expectations of consecutive rate cuts now raises questions about whether it is related to the latest CPI data.

From personal experience, during the interest rate hike cycle last year, the credit environment tightened significantly, and the difficulty of applying for credit cards increased sharply. In contrast, recently, with the emergence of interest rate cut expectations, the banks' attitude seems to have changed 180 degrees, and the frequency of actively promoting low-interest loan products has increased significantly.

However, we should not be overly optimistic about this transition. A rate cut may indeed bring some positive effects, such as a potential reduction in mortgage rates, which could stimulate the real estate market. Participants in the cryptocurrency market may also see it as a favorable signal.

But we also need to be wary of potential risks. If inflation rebounds, the Fed may adopt a hawkish stance again, which will bring new uncertainties to the market.

For investors holding dollar-denominated time deposits, the current situation may be concerning, as interest returns could decline from substantial levels to mediocre ones. In this case, investors may need to reassess their investment strategies, considering whether they should adjust their asset allocations, such as increasing their gold holdings or seeking opportunities in the US stock market.

Overall, in the face of this potential shift in monetary policy, investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor economic data and policy signals in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.