July Crypto Market Overview

Summary

• In July, the U.S. economy showed signs of inflation rebound and weakening growth. Both CPI and core inflation were above the 2% target, making it difficult to support a shift towards easing in the short term. The labor market remained generally stable but showed signs of marginal weakness; consumption was recovering but lacked a solid foundation. Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts intensified, with market expectations suggesting a possible rate cut in September. Geopolitical risks and domestic policy competition increased uncertainty, leading the Fed to maintain a cautious stance on high interest rates, putting pressure on market risk appetite.

• In July, the trading volume of the crypto market surged significantly, averaging $161.2 billion per day, with a month-on-month increase of 56%. The total market capitalization rose to $3.94 trillion ( +16.2% ). BTC's market share stands at 60.6%, while ETH is at 11.8%, with funds flowing from BTC to the ETH ecosystem, leading to an increase in market sentiment. The new popular tokens are primarily focused on infrastructure projects, with Layer 1/2 receiving significant attention, and DeFi still remains an important growth point.

• In July, the net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was $20.15 billion, and the net inflow of ETH was $10.71 billion, which drove prices up by 11.46% and 55.83% respectively. The circulation of stablecoins surged by $9.617 billion, with USDE skyrocketing by 36.2% leading the pack.

• BTC has attempted to reach $120,000 multiple times without success, currently priced at around $119,600. ETH has performed the strongest, rising from $3,740 to $3,881. SOL is relatively weak, consolidating in the range of $187 to $190.

• Multiple US stock companies have significantly increased their holdings of ETH and staked it, creating a "MicroStrategy version of Ethereum". The first stablecoin bill in the US has come into effect, clarifying the regulatory path for banks. The first Solana ETF supporting on-chain staking has been listed in the US, pioneering a new model of "staking + dividends".

• The CLARITY Act has entered the Senate for review, expected to promote compliance and capital inflow. The approval of Solana spot ETF is accelerating, and multiple institutions are applying for Ethereum staking ETFs, with the earliest approval expected by the end of the year.

1. Macroscopic Perspective

In July 2025, the U.S. macroeconomic environment continues to exhibit a coexistence of rising inflation and weakening growth momentum. Inflation levels have risen compared to previous months, still falling short of the 2% target, and monetary policy remains cautious. The labor market shows signs of marginal cooling, and while consumption has warmed up, the foundation is unstable. Additionally, geopolitical and domestic policy uncertainties continue to disrupt market sentiment.

In terms of inflation, the annual CPI overall inflation rate rose to 2.7% in June, with core inflation at 2.9% year-on-year. Tariff adjustments have led to a significant increase in service prices, particularly in housing and health insurance. Several Federal Reserve officials emphasized that the data does not support immediate easing, and the persistence of core inflation remains to be confirmed, with short-term policy focusing on "stability."

The overall resilience of the labor market remains, but it is weakening marginally. In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, below the 12-month average, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1%. The number of initial unemployment claims has fallen for six consecutive weeks. However, hiring intentions in sectors such as manufacturing and construction have weakened, and some regions have slowed the pace of recruitment.

Consumption rebound is mild. In June, retail sales rose by 0.6% month-on-month, marking the first increase in nearly three months, with relatively positive performance in non-essential goods and online consumption. However, high interest rates, rising credit costs, and a declining savings rate are suppressing mid-to-high-end consumption. Consumers in many regions are conservative towards high-priced goods, and the recovery in travel and accommodation is weakening. Although consumption has not deteriorated significantly, its resilience is being challenged.

Monetary policy divergence is intensifying. The market expects the July FOMC to keep interest rates unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes. Some doves are calling for a prompt rate cut to address growth risks, while hawks advocate for maintaining stability until inflation clearly declines. Currently, there is an expectation that a rate cut may be initiated in September, with the probability of two rate cuts within the year increasing.

In terms of international situation, the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, the war in Ukraine continues, and although the US and China have resumed dialogue, significant differences on key issues persist. Domestic skepticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve has intensified in the United States. Under both internal and external risks, corporate confidence in medium to long-term investments is affected, and market risk appetite is under pressure.

Looking ahead, the U.S. economy is at a critical stage of multiple forces competing with each other. Inflation has not met expectations, employment is weakening marginally, consumer recovery is fragile, and monetary policy signals are unclear. The Federal Reserve will continue to anchor its short-term decisions on data, maintaining a cautious observational stance. The market is paying attention to the core economic data and geopolitical risks for August and September. If inflation continues to decline and employment pressures increase, the Federal Reserve may formally enter a rate-cutting cycle in the fall.

2. Crypto Market Overview

According to CoinGecko data, as of July 28, the trading volume in the crypto market significantly increased in July, with an average daily volume of $161.2 billion, up 56% month-on-month. There were two rounds of concentrated trading volume from July 11-18 and July 21-25, with daily trading volume repeatedly exceeding $200 billion, reflecting large-scale capital inflow and rising sentiment. BTC broke the historical high, and ETH's strong leadership propelled the market upward in the short term, accelerating the release of structural opportunities and increasing investors' risk appetite.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies steadily rose to $3.94 trillion, an increase of 16.2% from last month. BTC's market share is 60.6%, ETH rose to 11.8%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate increased to 0.32, with ETH performing better than BTC. On July 22, the total market capitalization broke through $4 trillion for a new high, with a noticeable acceleration in market cap growth since July 11, reflecting an influx of funds and confidence recovery driven by the rise of mainstream assets. The expansion of market capitalization shows structural characteristics, indicating that the overall market has entered a new upward cycle.

The hot tokens launched in July are concentrated in infrastructure projects, with Layer 1 and Layer 2 being the most popular, such as Chainbase, ZKWASM, Caldera, and ERA. The DeFi project Aspecta has also gained attention. Investors show strong interest in infrastructure that enhances blockchain performance and scalability, while DeFi applications remain an important growth driver.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

In July, the net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was $20.15 billion, pushing the total net assets from $131.3 billion to $151.45 billion, an increase of 15.35%. The net inflow of ETH spot ETFs was $10.71 billion, with total net assets jumping from $9.95 billion to $20.66 billion, an increase of 107.64%, reflecting strong market confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem.

The total circulation of stablecoins surged by $9.617 billion ( +4.14% ), reaching $241.38 billion. USDE led with a growth rate of 36.2%, adding $1.9 billion (, while USDT ) added $5.55 billion ( and USDC ) contributed $2.13 billion ( as the main incremental forces.

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4. Mainstream Currency Price Analysis

BTC has attempted to break the resistance of 120,000 USD multiple times this week, retreating to around 114,759 USD after reaching 120,113 USD on July 23. The current price is about 119,600 USD, still hovering below the 20-day moving average around 116,300 USD. Technically, it is trying to build a bottom in the range of 110,530-116,000 USD. If a rebound is successful, it may challenge 123,000 USD and open the path to 135,000 USD; if it breaks below 110,530 USD, it may test 100,000 USD.

ETH is showing strong momentum, rising from $3,740 to $3,881 in two days, with a daily increase of 3-4%. The ETH spot ETF has seen a net inflow of about $2.4 billion over six days, far exceeding BTC. Technically, it is attacking the resistance at $3,745; if it breaks through, it could challenge between $4,094 and $4,868. However, if it falls below $3,500 or the 20-day moving average of ), which is about $3,234 (, the upward momentum may be weakened.

The SOL trend is weak, having fallen below $200 and dropping below $185, with a low of $184. It is currently hovering in the $190-$187 range, forming an inverse head and shoulders or cup and handle consolidation. If it breaks the resistance zone of $180-$188, it may reverse upwards to $220; if it falls below the support of $176, it may accelerate the correction to $157. Overall, it is still in an adjustment pattern, with bulls not having returned significantly.

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5. Hot Events of the Month

Several US stock companies are significantly increasing their holdings of ETH and staking on-chain, creating an "Ethereum version of MicroStrategy." SharpLink has become the largest institutional holder globally, surpassing the Ethereum Foundation. ETH is transitioning from a retail-driven tech asset to an institution-led reserve asset, entering a new narrative cycle of "staking + reserves + governance."

The United States' first stablecoin legislation, the "GENIUS Act," has officially come into effect, establishing issuance qualifications and clarifying regulatory pathways for banks. Following the passage of the act, the crypto market has significantly rebounded, with ETH rising by as much as 50% this month, BTC increasing by 10.27%, and stablecoin inflows reaching $9.617 billion. Financial institutions are accelerating their layout in stablecoins and on-chain payment applications.

The first Solana ETF)SSK( that supports on-chain staking is listed in the United States, pioneering the "staking + cash dividend" structure. 60% of the fund's assets participate in on-chain staking, with an annualized return of about 7% distributed in cash. SOL saw a short-term increase of 6%. Institutions such as Grayscale have submitted applications for Solana Spot ETF, and the SEC is expected to complete the review by mid to late August.

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6. Outlook for Next Month

The CLARITY Act has passed the House and is now under review in the Senate, aiming to clarify the classification and regulatory boundaries of crypto assets. If passed, it will enhance regulatory certainty, encourage compliant operations, grant greater authority to the CFTC, and confirm the legal status of DeFi. This is expected to drive a new round of compliance and capital influx into the U.S. crypto market.

The approval process for the Solana spot ETF is accelerating, with seven institutions having submitted applications. The SEC has requested supplementary materials to be provided by July 31, and the latest approval date is October 10. BlackRock and others have submitted applications for Ethereum staking ETFs, and the SEC has released regulatory guidelines and is considering simplifying the approval process. It is expected that the Solana ETF will be approved as early as August, while the ETH staking ETF is likely to be approved by the end of the year.

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