Digital assets demonstrate resilience in turbulent times

In June 2025, the global financial markets are undergoing an unprecedented stress test. The destruction of numerous nuclear bombers by Ukrainian drones has triggered fears of nuclear proliferation, trade frictions between China and the U.S. have resurfaced, and tensions are rising in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the price of traditional safe-haven asset gold has surpassed $3450 per ounce, approaching an all-time high. However, Bitcoin has exhibited surprising stability around the $105,000 mark. This performance, which is "desensitized" from geopolitical crises, reflects a profound transformation in the underlying logic of the cryptocurrency market.

1. The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts is Weakening: From Panic Amplifier to Risk Insulator

1. The "dulling effect" of conflict impact

In recent significant events in the Middle East, Bitcoin experienced only a slight decline for a short period before quickly stabilizing, contrasting sharply with the severe volatility caused by past geopolitical conflicts. This improvement in resilience stems from a qualitative change in market structure: the proportion of long-term holders has significantly increased, while the proportion of speculative chips has fallen to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively buffered the instantaneous impacts of sudden events through the hedging system established in the derivatives market.

2. Paradigm Shift of Risk Hedging Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being redefined. With expectations for the Federal Reserve to start a rate-cutting cycle, Bitcoin's negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries has significantly strengthened, making it more of a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than just a pure safe-haven asset. Recently, when a lackluster U.S. Treasury auction led to a surge in real rates, Bitcoin's reverse rally confirmed this new attribute.

3. Geopolitical premium's "targeted absorption"

The energy supply chain crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has objectively accelerated the process of dedollarization. Some countries are increasing their proportion of oil exports settled in Bitcoin, and this penetration into the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into a rigid demand for Bitcoin. Blockchain analysis shows that the on-chain transaction volume of wallet addresses in conflict areas surged several times after the event.

2. The Nested Game of Macroeconomic Cycles: Dual Support from Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Easing

1. The certainty dividend of monetary policy shift

The market's expectation probability for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in the third quarter has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure: the annualized premium of futures contracts has hit a recent high. Historical data shows that in the 3 months leading up to the initiation of an interest rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's average increase is significantly higher than that of gold.

2. Structural resolution of inflation stickiness

The latest core PCE price index fell to 2.8% year-on-year, and the supply chain pressure index has returned to pre-pandemic levels. This undermined Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. Some listed companies' financial reports indicate that the accounting treatment for enterprises holding Bitcoin has shifted from "intangible assets" to "strategic reserves," marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into the growth stock valuation framework.

3. The arbitrage space created by the differentiation of global monetary policies

Some central banks in certain countries continue to increase their gold reserves, while the U.S. Treasury is driving the dollar index to decline significantly through a "controlled depreciation" strategy. This contradictory monetary policy has given rise to a gray channel for cross-border capital to engage in arbitrage using Bitcoin. Data monitoring shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of Bitcoin in certain trade corridors has increased significantly during trade frictions.

III. Deep Structural Changes in the Market: From Retail Frenzy to Institutional Pricing

1. The "de-leveraging" of the position structure

In the futures open interest for 2025, the proportion of hedging positions has broken through 60% for the first time, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts has remained stable at a low level. This change means that the market is no longer reliant on leveraged funds for momentum, and the previously common "double explosion" phenomenon of long and short positions has basically disappeared. The management scale of mainstream Bitcoin ETFs has surpassed the hundred billion dollar level, and their daily net subscription volume shows a significant negative correlation with the market volatility index.

2. The "layered reinforcement" of liquidity structure

The proportion of account balances held in custody by major trading platform institutions has significantly increased. These "cold storage" chips serve as a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to breach key support levels. Recently, during panic selling triggered by geopolitical conflicts, the large buy orders at critical price levels primarily came from institutional over-the-counter trading.

3. The "traditional integration" of the valuation system

The correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 index has significantly decreased, while the correlation with the small-cap stock index has increased. This shift reflects the market's restructuring of valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models: the volatility of Bitcoin has approached the level of tech growth stocks, far lower than the extreme volatility seen previously.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

Bitcoin is currently finding support near the 50-day simple moving average, but bulls are struggling to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average, indicating a lack of buying strength at higher levels. The 20-day moving average is flattening, and the relative strength index is in the neutral zone, providing no clear advantage to either bulls or bears.

After breaking above the 20-day moving average, the price may test the range of $110,000 to $112,000. A drop below the 50-day moving average may challenge the key psychological level of $100,000. The 4-hour chart shows that sellers are trying to prevent the price from rebounding at the 20-day moving average. In the short term, $104,000 and $100,000 are important support levels.

V. Future Path Forecast: Summer Accumulation and Autumn Offensive

1. June to August: Period of consolidation and accumulation

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate between $98,000 and $112,000. The key observation point is whether the July FOMC meeting will release a clear signal for interest rate cuts; technically, the 200-day moving average will provide strong support. The impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists, but market depth has significantly increased, enhancing risk resistance.

2. September to November: Main upward wave starts

Historical seasonal patterns show that October is typically a strong month for Bitcoin. Coupled with the potential first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin may embark on a journey to reach higher price levels. The peak of maturing U.S. Treasury bonds may force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the secondary release of U.S. dollar liquidity will become an important catalyst. The options market has seen a large number of high strike call options expiring at the end of the year.

3. Risk Warning

Regulatory policy changes may trigger short-term fluctuations, but in the long run, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract a significant amount of traditional asset management funds. Investors should be wary of potential pullbacks that may occur by the end of the year, as historical data shows that the average drawdown during this phase in a bull market cycle is relatively large.

Conclusion: The Positioning of Bitcoin in the New Monetary Order

The current global financial market is undergoing profound changes, with Bitcoin playing a dual role in this transformation: it is both a beneficiary of the credit instability of the traditional system and a builder of the infrastructure for the new order. Its price stability no longer stems merely from reduced volatility but from the reconstruction of underlying value support—gradually evolving from a speculative asset into a liquidity tool that connects the real economy. In the process of reconstructing the fiat currency order, Bitcoin is proving its resilience and adaptability.