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The US employment report for July is about to be released, with the market closely following key indicators such as non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth. These data not only reflect the health of the economy but will also influence the Fed's policy direction and the trends in the financial markets.
Expectations indicate that non-farm payrolls may decline slightly, and the unemployment rate may rise modestly. If job growth is below 100,000 and the unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 4.3%, it could be viewed as a signal of economic cooling, thereby strengthening market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. In this case, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may benefit, as they are generally seen as assets that hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
On the contrary, if the employment data is strong and shows continued resilience in the labor market, it may weaken expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially raising the dollar index, which could put pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Wage growth is also an indicator worth following. If the annual or monthly rate exceeds expectations, it may raise concerns about persistent inflation, which is a double-edged sword for the cryptocurrency market. On one hand, it could delay the interest rate cut process; on the other hand, it may increase the demand for inflation-hedging assets.
Overall, this employment report will provide important clues for the market, helping investors assess the economic direction and the potential reaction of the cryptocurrency market. Regardless of the outcome, it could trigger market volatility, and investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor market movements following the data release.