Recently, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan put forward a thought-provoking point: the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin may no longer apply, and the next real large-scale bull run might be delayed until 2026. Although this view seems counterintuitive at first glance, the arguments behind it are quite compelling.

First of all, the structural funds brought by ETFs have not yet fully entered the market. What we are currently seeing in ETF inflows is just the tip of the iceberg. Large institutional investors, such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, are still waiting for a more完善的监管环境和入场时机. The investment pace of these funds is typically not influenced by Bitcoin halving cycles; instead, they tend to adopt a long-term holding and periodic rebalancing strategy to gradually increase their positions.

Secondly, on-chain data shows new behavioral patterns. In the past month, despite the continued decline in Bitcoin's on-chain activity, exchange inflows, and spot trading volume, the price has remained stable and even increased. This counterintuitive phenomenon suggests that a large number of coin holders in the market have chosen to lock up their assets, likely resulting from the entry of ETFs and long-term funds. This market structure is fundamentally different from the past situation driven by retail investors with severe price fluctuations.

From a macro perspective, the current bull run rhythm has indeed changed. We are experiencing a situation similar to structural inflation of financial assets: U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are taking turns hitting new highs, while the dollar has not shown significant depreciation. This reflects deep-seated issues of global asset scarcity and the continuous expansion of central bank balance sheets in various countries, which are difficult to resolve in the short term. Therefore, the overall asset pricing logic in the coming years may exhibit a slow upward trend with a focus on scarcity.

In summary, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a structural transformation. Traditional cycle theories may need to be reassessed, and investors should be prepared for a potentially more lasting, stable but relatively slow-growing bull run. Whether the 2026 predictions are accurate or not, closely monitoring market changes and maintaining a flexible investment strategy will be key to navigating this new landscape.