2024 US Election Predictions: Analysis of Key Factors Behind Trump's Rising Support Rate

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from a certain market prediction platform shows that Trump's support rate is gradually rising, with the latest predictions indicating he has gained 53% support, while his main competitor Harris's support remains at 46%. This change in data has attracted widespread attention, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican candidate, Trump's rising support not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion, but also reveals the challenges and difficulties Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will analyze the key factors leading to the rise in Trump's approval rating from multiple angles, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shift in attitudes of moderate voters, the influence of political figures in key states, and the widespread support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, in order to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Controversy over Harris Economic Policy

The economic policy proposed by Harris is one of the core components of her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.

1. Controversy over price control policies

The most controversial aspect of Harris's economic policy is her proposed price control measures. These measures aim to restrict companies' pricing power on essentials through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, despite the theoretical effectiveness of this policy in controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, economists and policy experts widely question its feasibility in practice.

Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and shortages of goods. Editorials in the media have pointed out that Harris's price control policies could undermine the supply-demand balance in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding. This concern is not unfounded; historically, many price control measures have failed due to poor market responses. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to reduce living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has impacted her support among centrist voters, especially among those highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of America's increasingly severe housing crisis; increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem is that the execution cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effects have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the source of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly stated. Moreover, she also made a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means the funding for the entire project may rely on large-scale government deficits or increased taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly further intensify criticism both within and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only makes moderate voters uneasy, but also raises questions about Harris's credibility in policy execution. Housing price controls and homebuyer subsidy policies seem to be a direct concern for the interests of low- to middle-income voters, but they may inadvertently trigger further price rises in the market, exacerbating supply and demand conflicts. Therefore, although the proposal of housing policies demonstrates Harris's concern for social issues, the shortcomings in policy design and execution difficulties have had a counterproductive effect on the election situation.

3. The Appeal and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy is centered around improving the quality of life for the middle class. She specifically emphasizes enhancing economic security for the middle class by increasing child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs. These measures theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of high childcare costs and healthcare expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, although these policies have been welcomed by some voters, the issues of long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the implementation of the policies is mishandled, those votes may turn to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has an idealistic color, potential issues during the implementation process, such as possibly increasing the government's fiscal deficit, weaken the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

In addition, Harris has attempted to combine economic policy with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing economic burdens on marginalized groups. However, this approach, while winning progressive support, has also raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe these policies may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.

4. Overall impact on the election situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating some concern for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to effectively boost her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and a lack of execution details. In contrast, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversy surrounding these policies not only puts Harris in a passive position in the election, but also provides Trump with a basis for attack. Trump can leverage the uncertainty in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who care more about economic stability and growth. Therefore, the impact of the Democratic Party's economic policies in this election is dual: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives; on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key moderate voters, thus creating conditions for Trump's rising approval.

2. The Attitude of American Centrist Voters is Wavering

Moderate voters often play a key role in American elections. Their positions usually do not lean towards either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of the controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among moderate voters has begun to decline. In contrast, although Trump's economic policies are controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with the expectations of moderate voters regarding economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he took during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have also garnered some recognition from moderate voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are considered too radical, especially in areas like price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase her support among moderates.

III. The Impact of the Absence of the Pennsylvania Governor on Election Dynamics

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's absence has negatively impacted Harris's campaign. Pennsylvania, as a key swing state, has voters whose attitudes are crucial to the outcome of the national elections. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this dissatisfaction could further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this situation, voters may have doubts about Harris's campaign ability and party cohesion, turning instead to support the more certain Trump. Shapiro's absence not only affects Harris's election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring unity within the party and support from key states is crucial to her campaign's success, but Shapiro's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump's Interaction with the Crypto Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. Although Trump initially had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, he gradually changed his stance as the market developed and began to actively support the crypto industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only demonstrates his open attitude towards cryptocurrency but also establishes a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong sense of identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position in the crypto community. One of the most noteworthy promises is the pardon of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. Silk Road was one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and Ulbricht's case holds great symbolic significance within the crypto community. Trump's commitment not only earned him favor among many cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry.

In addition, Trump stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the strategic reserves of the United States and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these measures will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained wide recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position in the cryptocurrency field is more clear and proactive, earning him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects, and they are more willing to support a candidate who holds an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's stance has clearly won him the support of this segment of voters and boosted his approval rating.

5. Cryptocurrency Company Election Spending in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to a report from a certain agency, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from crypto companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates whose interests align with their own. The crypto industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in words but also significantly impacts the election through financial assistance.

This corporate-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors direct funds towards political action committees (PAC) supporting Trump, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which directly drives up his odds in prediction markets.

Conclusion: The election results are difficult to predict, looking forward to the elected candidate further relaxing Web3 policies.

In summary, the rise in Trump's election rate is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, especially among centrist voters.