The New Landscape of the Crypto Assets Market: Analysis of Four Parallel Cycles

Recently, after communicating with senior industry professionals, a consensus has gradually formed: the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current Crypto Assets market. If investors still cling to old beliefs, hoping for profit opportunities brought by a bull market, they are likely to be left far behind by the market.

The current Crypto Assets market has evolved into a complex system where four distinct cycles operate simultaneously, each with its unique rhythm, strategy, and profit logic.

Bitcoin Super Cycle: Institution-Led Long-Term Growth

Bitcoin has transformed from a purely speculative asset to one that is being allocated by institutions. The traditional halving cycle effect is weakening, replaced by a slow but steady growth period that may last ten years or longer. The large-scale participation of major corporations and financial institutions is reshaping the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin.

For ordinary investors, this means facing the dual pressure of time and opportunity costs. Institutional investors have the ability to withstand a holding period of 3-5 years, while individual investors often find it difficult to maintain such long-term patience.

In the future, we may see Bitcoin exhibit characteristics similar to those of stable growth technology stocks, with an annualized return potentially stabilizing in the range of 20-30%, but with significantly reduced intraday volatility. As for the ultimate price ceiling of Bitcoin, it may be difficult to predict accurately from the current perspective.

MEME Coin Short Cycle: From Grassroots Carnival to Professional Competition

The MEME coin market is experiencing a shift from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition." Such projects do not require a complex technological background; they only need a resonant symbol or concept to quickly attract attention. MEME coins have evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industrial chain, encompassing various forms from cultural memes to community IP.

However, the "short, flat, and quick" characteristic of the MEME coin market makes it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir for funds. When funds are abundant, it becomes the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are tight, it turns into the last haven for speculation.

With the entry of professional teams and large funds, the difficulty for ordinary investors to profit in this high-frequency rotating market is rising sharply. The once "slum paradise" is becoming increasingly competitive and intense.

Long Cycle of Technological Innovation: A High Return Opportunity Worth Waiting For

Projects that truly have technological breakthroughs, such as Layer2 scaling, zero-knowledge proof technology, and AI infrastructure, typically require a development cycle of 2-3 years or even longer to see actual results. These projects follow the technology maturity curve rather than the emotional cycle of the capital market, and there is a significant time lag between the two.

Technical projects are often overestimated in the conceptual phase and underestimated in the actual implementation "valley of death" phase. This leads to a non-linear leap in the value release of technical projects.

For investors with patience and technical judgment, positioning in promising technology projects during the "death valley" phase may be the best strategy for achieving excess returns. However, this requires investors to endure long waits and market fluctuations.

Innovative Short-term Hotspots: Opportunities for Rapid Rotation

Before the formation of mainstream technological narratives, there will be a rapid rotation of various small hotspots in the market, such as tokenization of physical assets, decentralized physical infrastructure, AI agents, and so on. Each small hotspot usually only has a window period of 1-3 months.

This high-frequency rotation reflects the current characteristics of scarce market attention and capital seeking profit. A typical small hotspot cycle includes six stages: "concept validation → capital testing → public opinion amplification → fear of missing out → valuation overdraft → capital withdrawal." To profit in this model, the key is to enter in the early stages and exit at the peak.

It is worth noting that if multiple related small hotspots can form a systemic upgrade linkage and build a sustainable value closed loop in the process, a super narrative similar to DeFi Summer may emerge. Currently, the AI infrastructure field is the most likely to achieve this breakthrough first.

In summary, understanding the essence of these four parallel cycles is essential to finding suitable strategies within their respective rhythms. The singular "four-year cycle" mentality can no longer adapt to the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multiple parallel cycles" may be the key to achieving success in future markets.