Stablecoin Regulatory Bill: A Dramatic Turn from Near Death to Revival

From May to June 2025, the U.S. Senate engaged in fierce negotiations over a key bill. This bill, aimed at establishing the first federal regulatory framework for the $250 billion stablecoin market, experienced a dramatic turnaround from failure to passage, ultimately entering the Senate floor debate stage with a voting result of 68 to 30. Behind this victory were long-standing interest exchanges between the two parties, lobbying struggles by industry giants, and controversies arising from the involvement of some political families in cryptocurrency businesses.

Review of the Legislative Process

• March 2025: A senator officially submits a draft bill aimed at establishing a "federal + state" dual regulatory system for payment stablecoins.
• May 8: The bill unexpectedly failed the first procedural vote with a result of 48:49, as the opposition collectively turned against it citing "conflict of interest."
• May 15: The two parties held urgent consultations,推出修正版法案，删除部分争议条款，换取反对党部分支持.
• May 20: The amendment passed the critical "motion to terminate debate" with a vote of 66 to 32, clearing legislative hurdles.
• June 11: The Senate passed the bill with an overwhelming majority of 68 to 30, entering the final debate and amendment process.

The core of this series of twists lies in the ruling party's clever packaging of the bill as a strategic tool for "U.S. digital dollar hegemony," while the opposition party shows wavering positions due to concerns about "financial risks caused by regulatory vacuums." The Senate majority leader's lobbying remarks are highly provocative: "If the U.S. does not lead stablecoin regulations, other countries will fill the void!"

Core Provisions of the Bill

1. Dual Regulation and Issuance Threshold: Stablecoins with an issuance scale exceeding $10 billion are regulated at the federal level, while those below $10 billion may opt for state-level regulation, provided that state standards align with federal ones.

2. 1:1 Reserve and Asset Isolation: It requires that stablecoins be fully backed by cash, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and other highly liquid assets, with reserve assets strictly isolated from operational funds.

3. Restrictions on Tech Giants: Non-financial tech companies issuing stablecoins must undergo special scrutiny and meet data privacy and anti-trust requirements.

4. Consumer Protection and Bankruptcy Priority: In the event of the issuer's bankruptcy, stablecoin holders can redeem assets preferentially, and the reserves are not included in the bankruptcy estate.

5. Anti-Money Laundering and Transparency: Include stablecoin issuers under the jurisdiction of the Bank Secrecy Act, mandating the fulfillment of KYC, suspicious transaction reporting, and other obligations.

6. Regulatory Exemption Controversy: The bill does not explicitly prohibit certain special groups from participating in stablecoin operations, leading to controversy.

Market Impact and Future Outlook

If the bill is finally implemented, it will trigger structural changes in the stablecoin market:

• Leading stablecoin issuers will directly obtain federal licenses due to their early compliance with reserve requirements, further squeezing small and medium issuers.
• Traditional financial institutions have applied for a "limited purpose stablecoin license" and plan to expand their market through on-chain payment services.
• The bill requires that stablecoin reserves be primarily composed of U.S. Treasuries, which may temporarily alleviate liquidity issues with U.S. Treasuries, but could exacerbate "maturity mismatch" in the long run.
• Multiple countries and regions around the world have indicated that they will adjust their policies in reference to this bill, or form a "US Dollar stablecoin alliance."

Despite the Senate having passed the bill, it still needs to get through the House of Representatives' review and the President's signature. There are differences between the two chambers' versions, and the coordination process may extend until the recess in August. Additionally, certain interest issues involved in the bill may trigger judicial challenges.

Conclusion

The core objective of this bill is not only to regulate the market but also to extend the dollar's hegemony into the blockchain space. By bundling U.S. Treasury bonds with stablecoins, the U.S. is building a "digital dollar ecosystem." However, this strategy also faces risks: the development of decentralized finance or other countries accelerating the internationalization of digital currencies may affect the actual effects of the bill.

At the intersection of political games, competition for interests, and technological innovation, the final fate of this bill will profoundly impact the global financial landscape of the next decade.